Crossover designs randomly assign each unit to receive a sequence of treatments. By comparing outcomes within the same unit, these designs can effectively eliminate between-unit variation and facilitate the identification of both instantaneous effects of current treatments and carryover effects from past treatments. They are widely used in traditional biomedical studies and are increasingly adopted in modern digital platforms. However, standard analyses of crossover designs often rely on strong parametric models, making inference vulnerable to model misspecification. This paper adopts a design-based framework to analyze general crossover designs. We make two main contributions. First, we use potential outcomes to formally define the causal estimands and assumptions on the data-generating process. For any given type of crossover design and assumptions on potential outcomes, we outline a procedure for identification and estimation, emphasizing the central role of the treatment assignment mechanism in design-based inference. Second, we unify the analysis of crossover designs using least squares, with restrictions on the coefficients and weights on the units.
Based on the theory, we recommend the specification of the regression function, weighting scheme, and coefficient restrictions to assess identifiability, construct efficient estimators, and estimate variances in a unified fashion. Crucially, the least squares procedure is simple to implement, and yields not only consistent and efficient point estimates but also valid variance estimates even when the working regression model is misspecified.
蒋智超,中山大学数学学院教授,本科博士均毕业于北京大学数学科学学院,2016年至2019年在普林斯顿大学和哈佛大学从事博士后研究,2019年至2022年在美国麻省大学阿默斯特分校担任助理教授。研究领域为因果推断。研究的主要兴趣为随机化实验、主分层分析、工具变量、测量误差和缺失数据,以及因果推断方法在生物医学以及社会科学中的应用。